ASTHO was an active partner in the creation of CDC’s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics (CFA), including early calls for the federal government to create a center charged with improving response capabilities to emerging public health threats through disease modeling and forecasting. ASTHO leadership was involved in advisory roles as CFA was initiated. Consultation and engagement on how the work of CFA can be most effectively used in the field continues with state and territorial health officials, health department, and ASTHO staff.
Since 2022, ASTHO has received funding from CFA to support health department decision-makers with disease forecasting. This project includes a needs assessment which outlines knowledge of and capacity for disease forecasting activities throughout the nation’s state and territorial public health system. ASTHO also convened monthly sessions with partner organizations—the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, National Association of County and City Health Officials, and the National Conference of State Legislatures—to share updates on disease forecasting related programming, identify opportunities for coordination and collaboration between the organizations and our respective members, and work in partnership with CFA as they continued to develop and implement programming.
ASTHO works with existing peer networking groups, learning communities, and policy committees to seek input on disease forecasting topics. Updates from CFA are regularly shared with various ASTHO work groups and newsletters reaching health officials, senior deputies, epidemiologists, infectious disease directors, public health preparedness directors, informatics directors, public health attorneys, legislative liaisons, public information officers, and others. This included a five-session disease forecasting learning series in the spring of 2024.
Disease Forecasting Learning Series
In response to capacity needs identified through a needs assessment and regional meetings, ASTHO held a five-session disease forecasting learning series in the spring of 2024. Topics included Disease Forecasting Basics Part 1 and 2, Workforce Challenges and Opportunities, Communicating about Disease Forecasting, and Communicating with Policymakers about Disease Forecasting. Presenters included subject matter experts from ASTHO, CDC, partner organizations, academia, and health departments who provided important context and real-world application of the topic from experiences in their jurisdictions.
Latest Webinar
Communicating with Policymakers
July 18, 2024
Overview of key considerations when developing documents and talking points that will be used to brief health department leaders, policymakers, and elected officials.
- Adam Brush, MSW, MPH, Associate Director for Policy and Communication, Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, CDC
- Shannon Kolman, MBA, Senior Policy Specialist, Health Program, National Conference of State Legislatures
- Maggie Davis, JD, MA, Director, State Health Policy, ASTHO
Previous Webinars By Category
Disease Forecasting Basics
Disease Forecasting Basics: Part 1
March 14, 2024
In this session, attendees learn basics of disease forecasting, including short-term forecasts, nowcasts, scenario projections, and more. Examples of how public health has utilized forecasting to guide preparation and response activities, utilizing forecasting for decision-making, and what forecasting does not tell us.
- Dylan Morris, PhD, Team Lead, Inform Division, CFA, CDC
- Anne Zink, MD, FACEP (Alum-AK), ASTHO past president
- Matthew Biggerstaff, ScD, MPH, Team Lead, Applied Research and Modeling Team, Influenza Division, CDC
Disease Forecasting Basics: Part 2
April 4, 2024
A continuation of an overview of disease forecasting, including examples of how public health has utilized forecasting to guide preparation and response activities, utilizing forecasting for decision-making, and what forecasting does not tell us.
- Marisa Eisenberg, PhD, Associate Professor of Epidemiology and Complex Systems, University of Michigan
- Joe Coyle, MPH, Director, Bureau of Infectious Disease Prevention and Deputy State Epidemiologist, Michigan Department of Health and Human Services
Workforce and Training
Workforce Challenges and Training Opportunities
April 25, 2024
Overview of workforce challenges identified through ASTHO’s disease forecasting assessment of health departments and regional meetings hosted by ASTHO and the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists. In addition to workforce challenges, training opportunities are discussed.
- Ellie Bergren, MSc, Senior Program Analyst, Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists
- Amelia Poulin-Obregon, MPH, PMP, CPH, Assistant Director, Emerging Infectious Disease, ASTHO
Communication
Communicating About Disease Forecasting
May 16, 2024
Strategies for how public health professionals can communicate with the public about disease forecasting and modeling. Examples of health department communication activities are highlighted.
- Emily Gurley, PhD, Distinguished Professor of the Practice, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
- Leisha Nolan, MD, PhD, State Epidemiologist, Utah Department of Health and Human Services
Communicating with Policymakers
July 18, 2024
Overview of key considerations when developing documents and talking points that will be used to brief health department leaders, policymakers, and elected officials.
- Adam Brush, MSW, MPH, Associate Director for Policy and Communication, Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, CDC
- Shannon Kolman, MBA, Senior Policy Specialist, Health Program, National Conference of State Legislatures
- Maggie Davis, JD, MA, Director, State Health Policy, ASTHO
Disease Forecasting Publications
- Defining Disease Forecasting and Modeling: Disease forecasting, generated by disease models, helps the public health workforce understand potential future outbreaks. Learn more about disease forecasts and models.
- Communicating About Disease Forecasting: Clearly communicating about disease forecasting helps policymakers, the media, and the public make informed decisions in public health emergencies.
- Disease Forecasting and Modeling Data for Public Health Action: Disease forecasting and modeling help prepare public health departments for future infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics.
CFA as a Resource for Health Departments
CFA’s products may be used by health agencies in a variety of situations. These include decision-making during outbreak response, seasonal resource allocation planning, managing immunization campaigns, and communicating with other state leadership and the public.
CFA offers support to jurisdictions responding to ongoing outbreaks in their areas. Health departments can contact CFA through an online form. CFA produced publications and resources can be found on the CFA website.